The Peak Has Passed, Now What?

  Graph From Seattle Times Article 12/07/07

We noticed early last Spring that prices had begun to soften on the Eastside. As we made listing presentations to potential clients, it was apparent that the media, and thus the public, had no clue. More than a few homeowners turned us away, saying our market evaluations were too low compared to others that they had received. These folks were convinced that their respective properties were still appreciating at 1% per month. While we calculated that prices had stopped rising in November, ’06, these properties were all listed between May and July at 5 to 6% above the market. Not to toot our horn too loudly, but not one of those homes ever sold.

During the first half of this year I challenged Elizabeth Rhodes of The Seattle Times regarding her skewed interpretations of sales figures obtained from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, overstating market appreciation rates by citing very narrow market locations and products, missing the bigger picture reflected in extended market times, final sales prices, expired and cancelled listings. Ms. Rhodes tacit reply was that, “I’m a reporter, not a real estate agent”.

Now What? Just as the media clearly overstated the good times, they are bound to do the same with the bad times. Right now the market is in a seasonal lull. After the Holidays, there is always a surge, what Diana refers to as the “too much crap for Christmas” sale. Many of you have heard us repeat this over the years, that there is something about taking down the Holiday decorations that causes people to fall a little bit out of love with their homes. They also may have experienced some realization that their house wasn’t big enough for visiting guests. Whatever the motivation, people tend to start looking around at houses more after the Holidays than at any other time of the year. While folks may start looking, the media might continue to suppress buying decisions with frightful headlines. But sales will be made, and right after the first of the year, they might be some of the best deals found in 2008.